WS-FERN
Regional Peak
1/12
ICE: 1.15"
SNOW: 8.5"
Synchronizing...
MS 0.0%
0
TN 0.0%
0
KY 0.0%
0
GA 0.0%
0
VoLL
$0
FATALITIES
0 Deaths
FEMA EM
12 States
Map Layers
Base Layer
Active Overlays
Map Legend
Ice Glaze Accretion
Catastrophic (0.75" - 1.25")
Heavy Ice/Sleet (0.25" - 0.75")
Advisory (Trace - 0.25")
County Outage Severity
Critical (>50% Customers Out)
Severe (20% - 50% Out)
Moderate (5% - 20% Out)
Normal / Recovered (<5%)
State Sectors
MS (Mississippi)
TN (Tennessee)
KY (Kentucky)
GA (Georgia)
Telemetry Metric Explanations & Calculation Methodology

Winter Storm Fern Incident Command & Multi-State Telemetry

Unified Operational Scope • MS, TN, KY, GA

What This Metric Represents

The Incident Command Header represents the multi-jurisdictional emergency response coordination architecture active across Mississippi (MS), Tennessee (TN), Kentucky (KY), and Georgia (GA). It unifies telemetry feeds from state Emergency Operations Centers (MEMA, TEMA, KYEM, GEMA/HS), regional electric balancing authorities (Tennessee Valley Authority, Southern Company, Entergy, LG&E/KU, Duke Energy, and rural electric co-ops), and state Departments of Transportation.

Incident Framework & Telemetry Feeds

  • Chronological Event Stream: 81 sequential situation updates, executive orders, National Guard activations, transmission line trips, and boil water notices from January 21 to February 10, 2026.
  • Spatiotemporal Synchronization: Links GIS boundary layers, county ice glaze thickness, road travel closures, and power grid customer outage curves to an interactive linear event epoch.

Timestamp & Multi-Timezone Synchronization

Temporal Continuum • UTC / CT / ET

What This Metric Represents

Because Winter Storm Fern spanned two standard time zones and multiple federal/state reporting cycles, all telemetry data is pinned to an unambiguous ISO 8601 UTC timestamp and converted live into primary local and regional formats.

Timezone Conversions & Offset Calculations

$$\text{UTC Baseline (Zulu): } \text{YYYY-MM-DDTHH:MM:SSZ (e.g. 2026-01-23T13:56:00Z)}$$
$$\text{Central Time (CT): } \text{Local CT} = \text{UTC} - 6\text{ Hours (MS, Mid/West TN, West KY)}$$
$$\text{Eastern Time (ET): } \text{Local ET} = \text{UTC} - 5\text{ Hours (GA, East TN, East KY)}$$

Moving the timeline scrubber instantly calculates the exact elapsed duration ($\Delta t$) from storm onset and interpolates outage numbers, unserved energy, and casualty figures up to that millisecond.

State Electric Outage Counts & Percentage of Grid

Customer Meter Telemetry • MS, TN, KY, GA

What This Metric Represents

The state badges (MS, TN, KY, GA) display the current active customer electricity outages (metered meters/households/commercial accounts without power) and the percentage of the total utility customer baseline in that state affected at that timestamp snapshot.

Calculation Formula

$$\text{State Outage Percentage (\%)} = \left(\frac{\text{Active Reported Customer Outages}}{\text{Total Metered Utility Customer Baseline}}\right) \times 100\%$$

State Baseline Customer Statistics

State Total Customer Baseline Major Electric Utilities & Cooperatives Peak Outages in Storm
MS (Mississippi) 1,540,000 meters Entergy Mississippi, Mississippi Power, 25 Electric Power Cooperatives ~180,000 (11.7%)
TN (Tennessee) 3,400,000 meters TVA LPCs, Nashville Electric Service (NES), MLGW Memphis, EPB, 23 Co-ops ~310,000 (9.1%)
KY (Kentucky) 2,350,000 meters LG&E and KU, Duke Energy KY, Kentucky Power (AEP), EKPC Cooperatives ~125,000 (5.3%)
GA (Georgia) 4,950,000 meters Georgia Power (Southern Co.), 41 Georgia EMCs, MEAG Power, Municipalities ~65,000 (1.3%)

Cumulative Value of Lost Load (VoLL) & Unserved Energy

Macroeconomic Impact Model • Additive Integration

What This Metric Represents

Value of Lost Load (VoLL) is the standard power systems and regulatory economics benchmark estimating the total monetary cost to society caused by electricity outages. It quantifies the combined loss of commercial and industrial output, spoiled perishable goods, frozen pipe damage, emergency municipal operations, and residential willingness-to-pay for uninterrupted winter heating.

Cumulative VoLL & Energy Unserved Over Time

Interactive time-series damage accumulation across all 81 storm milestones. Select individual states or all states to analyze economic losses and unserved energy curves over the storm duration.

Mathematical Integration & Calculation Formula

Because electricity cannot be retroactively consumed after power is restored, Cumulative VoLL is strictly monotonic and additive. It is integrated across time intervals using the numerical trapezoidal rule:

$$\text{Interval Duration (hours): } \Delta t_k = \frac{t_k - t_{k-1}}{3600}$$
$$\text{Average Outages: } \bar{O}_{s,k} = \frac{O_{s,k-1} + O_{s,k}}{2}$$
$$\text{Delta Unserved Energy (MWh): } \Delta\text{MWh}_{s,k} = \frac{\bar{O}_{s,k} \times \Delta t_k \times \text{Avg Hourly kWh/Customer}_s}{1000}$$
$$\text{Delta Economic VoLL (\$): } \Delta\text{VoLL}_{s,k} = \Delta\text{MWh}_{s,k} \times 1000 \times \text{VoLL Rate}_s (\$/\text{kWh})$$
$$\text{Total Cumulative VoLL (\$)} = \sum_{k=1}^{N} \sum_{s \in \{\text{MS, TN, KY, GA}\}} \Delta\text{VoLL}_{s,k}$$

State-Specific Economic & Winter Load Constants

State Avg Winter Load (kWh/cust-hr) VoLL Rate ($/kWh) Equivalent VoLL ($/MWh) Benchmark Basis
Mississippi (MS) 1.62 kWh/hr $9.50 / kWh $9,500 / MWh LBNL Southeast Grid Reliability Survey
Tennessee (TN) 1.75 kWh/hr $10.25 / kWh $10,250 / MWh TVA Winter Heating Electrification Index
Kentucky (KY) 1.58 kWh/hr $9.80 / kWh $9,800 / MWh Midwest-South Winter Reliability Benchmark
Georgia (GA) 1.68 kWh/hr $11.00 / kWh $11,000 / MWh Commercial Metro Atlanta Density Index

Download Narrative & Methodology

Download the complete VoLL economic discussion, mathematical formulation, state benchmarks, and cumulative impact analysis as a separate research document.

Storm-Attributed Mortality & Deaths Telemetry

Public Health & Medical Examiner Verification

What This Metric Represents

The DEATHS telemetry counter tracks official cumulative fatalities directly or indirectly attributed to Winter Storm Fern across Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia.

Clinical Verification Protocol & Categorization

Mortality records are verified through state health departments (MSDH, TDOH, KDPH, GDPH) and county coroners across three primary clinical categories:

  • Hypothermia (Prolonged Sub-Freezing Exposure): Vulnerable individuals in homes without auxiliary heating during prolonged multi-day grid blackouts.
  • Carbon Monoxide (CO) Poisoning: Unsafe operation of combustion generators, charcoal grills, or kerosene heaters inside unventilated enclosed spaces.
  • Severe Transportation Trauma & Medical Equipment Failure: Multi-vehicle pileups on black ice and failure of residential oxygen concentrators/dialysis machines due to battery depletion.

Presidential Emergency & Disaster Declarations Registry (12 States)

FEMA EM-3631 through EM-3642 • Stafford Act Title V & Title IV

Federal Incident Response & Statutory Authority

Beginning on Friday, January 23, 2026, and continuing into Monday, January 26, 2026, a major winter storm (unofficially known as Winter Storm Fern) brought heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain, and dangerously cold temperatures to multiple states from the southern plains to the eastern United States. Southern states, including Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee, experienced catastrophic power outages as a result of ice and downed trees.

In response, President Donald J. Trump issued a historic wave of emergency declarations under Title V of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (42 U.S.C. §§ 5121 et seq.) to authorize federal Public Assistance (Category B — Emergency Protective Measures) and Direct Federal Assistance (DFA) at 75% federal cost share.

Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report IN12644 Excerpt:

"The emergency declarations authorize Public Assistance (assistance for nonfederal governments and nonprofits) for emergency protective measures. This may include assistance for costs incurred for emergency power restoration of public and nonprofit utilities, search and rescue, emergency sheltering, and the provision of emergency food, water, and medical supplies. Under the authorities of these declarations, FEMA deployed specialized Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMAT) to affected states..."

Complete 12-State Presidential Emergency Declarations Registry

Declaration # State / Jurisdiction Declared Date Assistance Authorized Designated Geographic Scope Timeline Event Official FEMA Link
EM-3631 Virginia (VA) Jan 23, 2026 Public Assistance (Category B) • Direct Federal Assistance Statewide (All 133 jurisdictions) FEMA-3631-EM
EM-3632 South Carolina (SC) Jan 23, 2026 Public Assistance (Category B) • Direct Federal Assistance Statewide (All 46 counties) FEMA-3632-EM
EM-3633 Kentucky (KY) Jan 24, 2026 Emergency Power Restoration (Co-ops/Muni), Search & Rescue, Sheltering Statewide (All 120 counties) FEMA-3633-EM
EM-3634 Maryland (MD) Jan 23, 2026 Public Assistance (Category B) • Direct Federal Assistance Statewide (All 24 jurisdictions) FEMA-3634-EM
EM-3635 Tennessee (TN) Jan 24, 2026 Emergency Power Restoration, Debris Clearance, Emergency Sheltering Statewide (All 95 counties) FEMA-3635-EM
EM-3636 Arkansas (AR) Jan 23, 2026 Public Assistance (Category B) • Direct Federal Assistance Statewide (All 75 counties) FEMA-3636-EM
EM-3637 North Carolina (NC) Jan 23, 2026 Public Assistance (Category B) • Direct Federal Assistance Statewide (All 100 counties) FEMA-3637-EM
EM-3638 Louisiana (LA) Jan 23, 2026 Public Assistance (Category B) • Direct Federal Assistance Statewide (All 64 parishes) FEMA-3638-EM
EM-3639 West Virginia (WV) Jan 23, 2026 Public Assistance (Category B) • Direct Federal Assistance Statewide (All 55 counties) FEMA-3639-EM
EM-3640 Mississippi (MS) Jan 24, 2026 Emergency Power Restoration, Water Booster Generators, Emergency Shelters Statewide (All 82 counties & Choctaw Tribe) FEMA-3640-EM
EM-3641 Indiana (IN) Jan 23, 2026 Public Assistance (Category B) • Direct Federal Assistance Statewide (All 92 counties) FEMA-3641-EM
EM-3642 Georgia (GA) Jan 25, 2026 Public Assistance (Category B) • Direct Federal Assistance 25 North/Central GA Counties & Statewide DFA FEMA-3642-EM
DR-4899 Mississippi Major Disaster Feb 06, 2026 Individual Assistance (IA) • Public Assistance (Cat A-G) • Hazard Mitigation (HMGP) 36 Mississippi Counties + Choctaw Tribe FEMA-4899-DR

Eligible Emergency Activities under Category B

  • Emergency Power Restoration: Overtime labor, mutual aid utility crews, contractor support, bucket trucks, and temporary generation equipment for public power and rural electric cooperatives.
  • Life-Safety & Warming Shelters: Operational staffing, emergency backup generation fuel, cots, blankets, and congregate care services for displaced residents in sub-freezing conditions.
  • Search & Rescue (SAR) & Welfare Checks: Door-to-door wellness checks on medically vulnerable individuals, mobile oxygen concentrator deliveries, and emergency evacuation of nursing homes with grid failures.
  • Essential Commodities: Pre-positioning and distribution of bottled potable drinking water, Meals Ready-to-Eat (MREs), and industrial diesel/gasoline reserves.

Metric Switcher: $ USD (Valuation) vs MWh (Physical Volume)

Macroeconomic vs Grid Engineering Dimension

What This Metric Represents

The top-right toggle switch lets analysts toggle the primary impact telemetry between two complementary engineering and economic dimensions:

  • $ USD (Macroeconomic Valuation): Converts all unserved electricity into total dollar losses to households, commerce, and public infrastructure using state VoLL indices.
  • MWh (Megawatt-Hours of Physical Energy): Measures the raw physical quantity of electrical energy that the power grid was unable to generate and deliver due to iced transmission towers, downed distribution feeders, and generation station cold curtailments.

Physical Conversion Factor

$$1\text{ Megawatt-Hour (MWh)} = 1{,}000\text{ Kilowatt-Hours (kWh)} = 1{,}000{,}000\text{ Watt-Hours}$$
$$\text{VoLL (\$)} = \text{MWh} \times 1{,}000 \times \text{State VoLL Rate (\$/kWh)}$$
Geospatial Map Settings & Display Options

Camera Navigation & Auto-Adjust Behavior

When navigating the timeline, automatically centers and zooms to the active state or incident location.

Controls animation duration and easing when auto-focusing on events.

Camera magnification when auto-focusing on an incident location.

Layer Opacities & Severity Density

Adjust transparency of green-to-red outage severity choropleth fills.

50%

Adjust transparency of freezing rain and sleet hazard contours.

65%

Line thickness for MS, TN, KY, GA perimeter lines.

2px

Basemap Visual Filters (Contrast & Saturation)

Dim or brighten underlying satellite or canvas tiles.

100%

Increase separation between terrain features and administrative boundaries.

100%

Set to 0% for pure greyscale canvas or up to 150% for high color vividness.

100%

Interactive Markers & Tooltips

Shows an animated pulsing beacon on the active event epicenter.

Display county name and estimated customer outage percentage on mouse hover.

Top Banner Telemetry Bar Customizer (Order & Visibility)

Reorder telemetry components from left to right using the / controls, and use the toggle switches to show or completely hide individual data items.

Incident Storybook & Printable Dossier (81 Records)

Generate a complete chronological report containing all 81 milestones. Each record produces the high-resolution poster, official role & statement, notification telemetry, state outage breakdown (MS/TN/KY/GA), cumulative unserved energy (MWh), and cumulative VoLL ($ USD). Formatted to flip through like a book or print to PDF.

Foundational Master Posters & Concept Gallery (12 Artworks)

Original foundational concept art, strategic emergency declarations, and agency operational posters generated for Winter Storm Fern. Click any poster to inspect in high resolution.

FOUNDATIONAL ARTWORK Agency Role
Foundational Poster Artwork

Winter Storm Fern — Incident Command Storybook

Record 1 of 81